“It’s the most wonderful time of the year!”
No, it’s not Christmastime, and that’s not Andy Williams singing – but it is someone with the same initials!
Me. It’s me. Right now. Because it’s Oscar season (pew pew-pew pew!)
My favorite thing to do during Oscar season is pretend I know more about movies than I do and spout off my biased opinions about it. And guess what? Now that I have a platform to talk about it, YOU get to hear about it! Aren’t you lucky.
Note: These are fairly early predictions, and I haven’t really based them off anything, other than the smatterings I’ve heard from the Golden Globes. I will present to you what I think will win and what I think should win. Some of the categories I’m less knowledgeable about (like documentary short and all its derivatives) I’m omitting, simply because I literally know nothing about those films (if you do know something about those films, please spout off in the comments! Inform me! Please!)
So here we go! My 2019 Oscar Predictions for all to see!
Best Picture
What will win: A Star is Born. The way I see it, it gained so much traction when it was first released and was all people could talk about it for a long time. I personally haven’t seen it (yet,) so that’s all I’m going off of. I’m basing this completely off of buzz, but as we all know, this category sometimes has dark horses.
What should win: The Favourite. This was such a cinematic treat. I still can’t get over it. It was a truly unique viewing experience that left me full to the brim with the opulence of the period, and the raw realness that the director brought even to the veneer of the Baroque period. Plus, the score is almost entirely Baroque-era music.
Best Director
Who will win: Alfonso Cuaron, for Roma. This is a dark horse for sure. Roma swept Netflix in late 2018 and immediately became an Oscar contender in several catagories. Cuaron has a pretty steady track record for winning best director but not picture, so I think he’s got a top spot for this award.
Who should win: Spike Lee, for BlacKkKlansman. Klansman was just solid storytelling, and focused on a part of history that’s been at the forefront of everyone’s minds recently. And the premise itself is wild – an African American man posing as a KKK member. Interesting? Heck yeah. Politically charged? Most certainly. Excellent? Absolutely.
Best Lead Actress
Who will win: Lady Gaga for A Star is Born. Like I said, this film was a heavy hitter for the top awards, and Gaga got a lot of attention for this role. (Again, I haven’t seen it, so there’s not a lot I can say.)
Who should win: Olivia Colman for The Favourite. Talk about a star turn. Olivia Colman is a force of nature in her sometimes-vicious, sometimes-docile role of the passive Queen of the 18th Century British empire who is glanked by two rival lovers. Her performance is everything you’d want – disturbing, deadpan, and just a little bit helpless.
Best Lead Actor
Who will win: Bradley Cooper for A Star is Born. I’ll just say it: I’m calling a clean sweep for Star this year. Cooper is starting to become the new Leo of the Oscars, and if he’s gonna win for anything, it’s gonna be this.
Who should win: Rami Malek for Bohemian Rhapsody. In my opinion, the film fell flat in many places, but Malek never did. He handled the daunting task of playing Freddie Mercury with nuance, a little charm, and a whole lot of sassy nihilism. It’s hard to not see Freddie when you watch the film. Malek was impeccable without mimicking Mercury, but rather paying homage in his role.
Best Supporting Actress
Who will win: Regina King for If Beale Street Could Talk. Again, I haven’t seen this film, but King has been getting buzz for this role. Why not listen to the masses? (The Academy is notoriously known for not doing this, but hey. Whatever.)
Who should win: Rachel Weisz for The Favourite. Weisz and Emma Stone are both contenders for the supporting actress slot, but I think of the two, Weisz had a stronger presence onscreen. She plays the unbending role of the Queen’s sometime-adviser, sometime-lover, who is spurned when the Queen shows favor to Stone’s ingenue character. Maybe it’s just her cheekbones though. Or her boss lady outfits.
Supporting Actor
Who will win: Sam Elliott for A Star is Born OR Mahershala Ali for The Green Book. I haven’t seen either of these films, but both of these actors have gotten respective buzz for their roles – Ali for his performance, and Elliott because he’s never gotten nominated for a dang Oscar. If I had to choose, I’d say Elliott, as a sort of lifetime achievement situation (here’s looking at you, Leo.)
Who should win: Adam Driver for BlacKkKlansman. In my opinion, Driver was hardly supporting. While John David Washington was definitely the (extremely satisfying) centerpiece of the film, Driver was Flip Zimmerman, his Jewish body-double when attending Klan meetings. Driver gives Zimmerman great control in these high-stress situations and has some of the most intense scenes in the film (when a Klan member straps him to a lie detector and starts insulting Jews? Bone-chilling.) In my mind, Driver gave one of the best performances of his career.
Original Screenplay
What will win: Roma. I know, I know. I need to see it. But from what I’ve heard, this one is gonna go home with a lot this year.
What should win: The Favourite. I know, I’m singing the praises of this film a lot. But it was that good. It was very story-driven, but the story doesn’t bog down the dialogue at all. It’s sharp, biting, and many sequences end in a perfect punchline.
Adapted Screenplay
What will win: A Star is Born. Guess I’m not counting on the Oscars being super diverse this year.
What should win: BlacKkKlansman. The dialogue in this film is sharp as a tack. Funny, ironic, and at times heartbreaking. Again, I’m biased because I’ve actually seen this movie.
Makeup and Hair-Styling
Wbat will win: Mary Queen of Scots. Because Saoirse Ronan looks dang good in a corset.
What should win: Vice. In a strange turn of events, I have seen neither of these films, so this is only hearsay and stills I’ve seen on the internet. But anyone who can make Christian Bale look irrecognizable (outside of him gaining/losing wait a la The Machinist) deserves a win in my book.
Costume Design
What will win: Mary Queen of Scots. The period dramas just tend to win in this category, and oftentimes they’re well deserved. Because I know it’s not easy replicating Elizabethan garb.
What should win: The Favourite. Again, I’m biased because I saw this movie. But the costumes were so artfully put together that this deserves it. Like, Rachel Weisz in the Baroque equivalent of a pantsuit? Yes please.
Cinematography
What will win: Roma or The Favourite. From the production stills I’ve seen of Roma it looks absolutely beautiful – not to mention it’s in black-and-white, and the Academy loves artsy stuff like that. Now The Favourite has its own flavor of cinematography that makes it a top contender. Unrelenting tight shots, fish-eye lens, and long uncut sequences hit all the high notes. I think both films are well-deserving.
Original Song
What will win: “Shallow” from A Star is Born. Still predicting a clean sweep. Plus I mean, Lady Gaga. Y’know?
What should win: “Place Where the Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns. And not just because I cried three times during that song alone in the film. It’s a heartbreakingly beautiful song sung as a lullaby by Mary, and an emotional pinnacle of the film.
Original Score
What will win: Mary Poppins Returns. Not gonna lie, it’s a great score and definitely deserves attention. The songs are just huge amounts of fun that pay loving homage to the original film.
What should win: BlacKkKlansman. One of the best parts of Klansman to me was the score. It had a hauntingly hopeful theme throughout, typically played by the string section, that’s hard to get out of your head after you hear it a couple times.
And last but not least, Animated Feature
What will win: Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse. I’m fully behind this film winning, which I for sure think it will. Outside of being a solid film, it’s a visual treat on top of that.
What should win: Isle of Dogs. It’s a bit of a pipe dream for me, since I think both of these films are the most deserving of the award. How can you not fall in love with Wes Anderson’s masterful direction and the heartwarming tale of a band of feral dogs warming up to a helpless human boy? (And yes, I cried.)
Hot take predictions, because I don’t know enough about these categories:
Roma will take home foreign language film. I seems to be a critical favorite, after all.
A Star is Born will take home in the sound mixing category.
A Quiet Place will take home sound editing (ironically) but is seriously deserving of it, in my opinion. It’s one of the few movies where I’ve actually noticed sudden changes in sound (which was the intention anyway.) And sound (obviously) played a pretty important role in the film as well.
Mary Poppins Returns will sweep up production design. Because seriously, did you see the “Light Fantastic” sequence with all the chimney sweeps? Like okay. We see you.
First Man will take home visual effects. I don’t know why. I just think it will.
The Favourite will grab film editing. Again with those long, deliberate shots and how certain scenes are inextricably linked together (just watch it okay??)
Bao will win for best animated short. I base that simply on Pixar having a really strong track record for winning in this category, for pretty obvious reasons. Plus, while it’s slightly disturbing (don’t eat him!) it’s also very heartwarming.
As for the other categories, like I said – I literally know nothing about the documentaries, doco shorts, live action shorts, etc. So I ain’t even gonna try. But feel free to spout off your ideas/predictions in the comments! And don’t forget to like/share/subscribe, and follow along with the hashtag #MindOverMedia.
Audrey D. DeBoer 