Like most people, I am a fan of being right. But, also like most people, I seldom am. However, when offered multiple chances to be right, I will take all of them. That is one of many reasons I love awards season.
To be clear: I don’t love watching awards ceremonies other than to be the first to see the memes that will be trending the next day. I’m not a fan of how the Oscars have become less about celebrating movies and all the craft that goes into it and more about the various agendas of the celebrities who are there. It’s a small dilemma. Feel bad for me. (Don’t.)
I watch them anyway because one, I want to be right about my predictions, and two, it’s still an amazing celebration of movies. So that’s what I’m going to focus on in my 2020 Oscar nomination predictions. I’ll touch on the snubs for sure (there were a LOT of snubs this year) but my main focus is for these predictions is to celebrate the diversity of film that was released this year.
My 2020 Academy Award Predictions
The rules are similar for this year as they were for last. I will pinpoint which film or actor or designer I think will win followed by whom or what I think should have won. Some of them will be the same, if I think they are worthy.
Best Picture
What will win: The Joker. The Joker was the hotly-debated but mostly widely well-received darling of the Golden Globes. The film was just different enough from the other knocks-out-of-the-park of the year (there were many) to make it a chilling contender.
What should win: The Joker. Yup. It was that good. Very few movies have given me a literal gag reflex while watching the plot unfold. I sat in my seat during the credits with my mouth agape. I had no clue what I had just witnessed and it took me days to shake that feeling. That’s how a movie should make you feel.
Best Actress
Who will win: Cynthia Erivo for Harriet. I’ve heard enough buzz about this film to know that she carried it, and carried it well. I’m hoping to see the film before the actual ceremony, and I wouldn’t be surprised if she took home the award.
Who should win: Scarlett Johansson for Marriage Story. Again with the ugly cry. ScarJo seamlessly monologued through an entire tracking shot and I am here for it. Her character was so flawed, so relatable, and so broken, and it was easy to sympathize with her.
Best Actor
Who will win: Joaquin Phoenix for The Joker. Our erratic little character actor friend is going to be part of the Joker clean sweep this year. Joaquin is mega talented and pulled out all the stops for this role (ie, the tear while putting on his makeup) including losing an insane amount of weight. His character’s transformation was tangible and chilling. I felt the exact moment his character began to turn and it absolutely shook me to the core.
Who should win: Adam Driver for Marriage Story. Our hunky space goth deserves some love for his role in this movie. He may have Kyle-punched a wall, but his portrayal of a father and overall flawed human going through a divorce was real and heart-wrenching. Driver’s ugly cry alone deserves the statue.
Best Director
Who will win: Sam Mendes for 1917. I haven’t seen this movie, but I’ve seen enough about it to know that the design and execution is stunning, so I’m thinking Sam will win for this one. I’m predicting a clean sweep of production-based awards for this film.
Who should win: Todd Phillips for The Joker. While 1917 may be aesthetically pleasing, The Joker was so incredibly well executed that Todd Phillips deserves something.
Best Supporting Actor
Who will win: Tom Hanks for It’s A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood. Because it’s Tom freaking Hanks, guys. And he played Mister freaking Rogers. I’m ashamed to say I also have not seen this movie yet, but if I know anything about Tom Hanks playing lovable old men, I know he’s a shoe-in.
Who should win: Joe Pesci for The Irishman. But Joe Pesci came out of semi-retirement for this Scorcese film, and to great effect. He denied the role several times before accepting it, but his role of wizened mob boss was incredible and maybe my favorite part of the film.
Best Supporting Actress
Who will win: Laura Dern for Marriage Story. In the movie, Laura plays every powerful white woman I’ve ever known. She’s so perfect in the role of buddy-buddy divorce lawyer who becomes a b-word when she needs to be. Laura would like to speak to the manager so she can have that statue, please.
Who should win: Laura Dern for Marriage Story. I mean, did you SEE her take off her blazer in the courtroom. Did you SEE that power move. She deserves it.
Best Animated Film
What will win: Missing Link. It won the Golden Globe, which is a good indication during awards season for better things to come. It looks like a grand old time for sure, and Hugh Jackman is in it, so how can you go wrong?
What should win: Klaus. Klaus was heartwarming, heartbreaking and incredibly original. It was extremely clever and downright beautiful. It was almost more Disney than Disney itself, without having to rely on tropes or franchises.
Original Screenplay
What will win: Parasite. This surprise movie has generated a lot of buzz and popularity, so it’s going to go home with a handful of awards (maybe even best picture, but that’s not my prediction.)
What should win: Knives Out. Knives Out has been devastatingly overlooked this awards season, even though its a compelling, fun whodunit with just enough quirk to keep it interesting. Sure, it’s predictable (to an extent) but it’s also incredibly fresh and sharp as a tack.
Best Adapted Screenplay
What will win: The Joker. Purists will tell you that this movie deviated massively from the source material. However, it offered a new take on a constantly-overdone franchise that has promised us we will NOT be getting a sequel – which frankly, is a relief.
What should win: The Irishman. Yes, it was long. But are we surprised? No. Let our short friend Martin have his due on Netflix. The Irishman was a sprawling masterpiece, for the most part, and thoroughly intriguing. Never join the mob, kids.
Visual Effects
What will win: 1917. Production-wise, 1917 is going to gain a lot of accolades this year. It’s been called a masterpiece of a film, so I wouldn’t be surprised if it took home visual effects.
What should win: Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker. With all the force jumps and lightsabers and cool worlds, I want The Rise of Skywalker to get one final win as a franchise. However you feel about the plot, the spectacle of the film was something to behold (BABU FRICK HELLO.)
Cinematography
What will win: 1917. As I said before, 1917 is evidently a cinematic treat and is being touted for its design and long tracking shots. This film will definitely go the way of 2017’s Dunkirk.
What should win: The Lighthouse. I literally CANNOT believe this film only got one nomination. I’m glad, however, it was nominated for cinematography. The feel of this film is claustrophobic and gritty. It deserved so many more nominations (including, arguably, best picture) but I will settle for it winning for its stunning and intentional cinematography.
Some very quick hot takes:
- Joker will also win for best score. The score is spooky at best (and written by a WOMAN) and chilling at its very best. It set the perfect tone for the film and deserves accolades. However, it would be extremely gratifying to me if John Williams won a final Oscar for Star Wars. I would maybe die.
- 1917 will also win for production design, but Once Upon A Time in Hollywood also has a chance.
- We all love a good period drama, especially when it comes to costumes, so Little Women will win for costume design.
Audrey D. DeBoer 